Posted on 03/27/2003 7:32:41 AM PST by TaxRelief
BERLIN (Reuters) - A top German scientist said on Thursday he did not expect the mysterious pneumonia which has killed more than 50 people to mushroom into a global epidemic and predicted it was likely to abate in the next few weeks.
Microbiologist Bernhard Fleischer, head of Hamburg's Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine (BNI), said his institute had probably identified the virus causing severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).
"I don't assume that there will be a worldwide epidemic which will spread among the population," Fleischer told Reuters in an interview. "We are lucky that this disease is not as contagious and does not spread as easily as first assumed." Scientists from the BNI, Germany's top tropical diseases institute, worked on identifying the virus by analyzing tissue samples taken from a doctor from Singapore who was being treated in Frankfurt after showing symptoms of SARS. Fleischer said his institute had developed a test with which experts could detect within one or two hours whether a patient had caught the virus. A group of microbiologists from the University of Hong Kong said on Thursday they had also identified the virus and believe it is a new strain from the family of coronaviruses, the second leading cause of colds in humans. The finding was confirmed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Coronaviruses, so named because they have a crown-like appearance when seen under a microscope, are often responsible for upper respiratory infections in premature infants. SARS, which is reported to have killed 50 people globally and made more than 1,300 sick, has caused many travelers to cancel trips to the most affected countries -- Singapore, Hong Kong and Southern China. Hong Kong and Singapore have announced quarantines for thousands of people with flu-like symptoms and have closed schools until April 6.
WIDE-RANGING IMPACT
The disease is hitting Asia economically, with airlines in the region cutting flights and suffering steep share price falls as the virus spreads. News of the growing number of infections in Asia has raised concerns the disease may be airborne. But Fleischer said he believed it is spread through droplets by sneezing and coughing and therefore can only be caught through very close contact with an infected person. "I expect it to abate in the next few weeks," he added. Fleischer also said he believed the disease was not very contagious before a patient started to show symptoms, such as high fever and shortness of breath. Other viruses are highly contagious from the moment of infection. Developing a serum against SARS could take years, Fleischer said, but he added that a new vaccination may not be necessary as known medications against viruses could help to combat it.
"It first needs to be examined whether known and existing medication can help," he said.
The Hong Kong research team said patients were responding well to a cocktail of anti-viral drugs and steroids.
Fleischer said his institute and U.S. scientists had independently found that the cause of SARS was very probably a coronavirus. It had probably been transmitted from animals to human beings, he said.
However, other labs that analyzed samples from patients had said they found what looked like a new kind of paramyxovirus, which causes measles and respiratory disease in babies.
Fleischer said identifying the virus was a first step to finding a treatment for SARS, which WHO officials believe is linked to an outbreak in China that began in November.
He noted that the World Health Organization had not issued a travel warning for China. "There is no need for that," he said. "If one is taking certain precautions, there is hardly a danger of infection."
The disease has spread to Hong Kong, Vietnam, Singapore, Canada, Germany, Japan, United States, France and Britain.
WHO doctors researching the outbreak, which may be linked to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), said the number of cases rose during the winter high season for pneumonia but was now falling off, a spokesman said.
"The outbreak in Guangdong followed a kind of traditional epidemiological curve, which is like a bump, which you would get in winter anyway with pneumonia," spokesman Chris Powell said.
The southern province of Guangdong, where the outbreak the WHO was studying occurred, said on Wednesday 31 people had died of atypical pneumonia by the end of February and 792 had been infected in the province.
Guangdong said it would give March figures next month, although officials said the number of new cases reported this month had fallen sharply.
"Until they officially give us the figures for March, which they've promised to do, you won't be able to say certainly that the numbers have gone down," Powell said.
"But it will have done. It's not like a line which is shooting up through the ceiling."
On Wednesday, the Beijing city government said three people from out of town had died of atypical pneumonia and five found to have the disease, but insisted no local people had contracted it.
But Fleischer said he believed it is spread through droplets by sneezing and coughing and therefore can only be caught through very close contact with an infected person.
So how big a viral load is needed to catch this thing (and how big must the droplets be)? Do they survive on metal surfaces, and if so, for how long?
If the doctor is right and this is in the coronavirus family, then it is related to the common cold. Absent information to the contrary, it therefore seems logical to assume this has the same communicability as the common cold.
"I expect it to abate in the next few weeks," he added.
This is the most important statement in the entire article, but he gave no reasons.
So, why does he think this? Is it because he expects the "cold season" to end, thereby putting an end to SARS? That is quite possible, but I would like to hear his reason for making this statement.
Fleischer also said he believed the disease was not very contagious before a patient started to show symptoms, such as high fever and shortness of breath. Other viruses are highly contagious from the moment of infection.
Based on what I have read, this seems likely to be true. However, if he has correctly identified the family of viruses this comes from, then this is related to the common cold. It would be nice if simple souls like me could make an easy comparison. Is he saying SARS is less contagious than the common cold in its early stages? If it is equally as contagious, am I supposed to be happy?
Developing a serum against SARS could take years, Fleischer said, but he added that a new vaccination may not be necessary as known medications against viruses could help to combat it. "It first needs to be examined whether known and existing medication can help," he said.
This statement rang a lot of alarm bells. The good doctor must know that every known medication has already been tried. Nothing has been shown to be effective. There is some possibility that treatment with certain anti-virals early enough in the course of the disease may help, but this is inconclusive.
The Hong Kong research team said patients were responding well to a cocktail of anti-viral drugs and steroids.
The published information from Hong Kong as of yesterday said nothing of the kind. At best, "some" patients "may" respond, particularly if treatment is started early. Perhaps the good doctor has access to unpublished information. If so, he should let the world know.
Sorry to rain on the parade, but this article rang the bell on the BS meter. The doctor had some encouraging words, but he provided no support for his statements. The heart of his upbeat assessment was at odds with previously published information, so it was incumbent on him to support his position. He did not even attempt to do so.
I have no axe to grind, nor am I some stupid fear monger. I would like to know what is really going on. Unfortunately, this article looks more like an attempt to quell public fears than an honest attempt to disseminate information. (I admit, quelling public fear can be a good thing...)
This article had only one piece of useful information: The Germans think SARS is a new viral variant from the Coronavirus family. Based on other news today, that seems to be the emerging consensus.
I agree. A new report indicates that WHO wants to take it to the level of airport screenings.
03/27 11:40
World Health Organization Wants Airport Screening for New Virus
By Warren Giles
Geneva, March 27 (Bloomberg) -- The World Health Organization has recommended passenger screening at airports for a new respiratory disease that has infected hundreds of people around the world in a bid to stop it from spreading.
``We are now going to step up our recommendations to focus on reducing the likelihood of people from affected areas taking international travel,'' Max Hardiman, head of international health regulations at the WHO, told reporters.
Hong Kong and Singapore have both begun quarantining citizens and said they will shut schools to prevent further infections of the disease, known as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, or SARS, which has affected more than 1,300 people in countries including Canada, Taiwan, China and Vietnam. At least 49 people have died from the disease.
The screening should consist of two questions -- about a passenger's health and whether they may have been exposed to the disease -- asked at the same time as security questions about travelers' baggage when checking in, Hardiman said.
The disease may be spread by close contact, including passengers sitting within two rows of an infected person on an aircraft, the United Nations' health agency said.
``People leaving an affected area should be screened for symptoms or signs of SARS, and people who test positive would not be allowed to travel,'' Hardiman said.
The measure will be difficult to implement, he said, because governments will need extra staff, including health-care workers to assess suspected cases, at airports and sea ports.
This is a major accomplishment, if true. The U.S. CDC also developed a test, last week, and I have heard nothing about it since. They said at the time that it would take a couple of weeks before the test was widely available.
Hong Kong has also developed a test.
Testing is obviously a big deal. Once a test is generally available, a major benefit will be help making an accurate initial diagnosis. The official list of symptoms is so generic that identification of people with the disease is very difficult.
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